Betting systems are explained.
What attributes does a winning gambling plan have?
No betting strategy can ensure success. If one were to be created, it is safe to say that it would not be sold and that the casinos would act quickly to forbid its usage.
An organized approach to gambling is known as a betting strategy (sometimes called a betting system) to generate a profit. For purely probability games of chance with set odds, similar to a perpetual motion machine, the system must convert the house edge into a player advantage to be effective. Statistical analysis is frequently the foundation of betting systems.
Although they can raise the chances of short-term winning at the expense of increased risk and can be a fun gambling experience for some, no betting system can change the long-term expected results in a game involving independent, random trials.
Game theorist Richard Arnold Epstein formally states this in The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic:
Theorem: If a gambler risks a finite amount of capital over many plays in a game with a constant single-trial probability of winning, losing, and tying, then any betting strategy systems ultimately lead to the same value of mathematical expectation of gain per unit amount wagered.
Although mathematically and scientifically, it’s impossible to beat the casinos in the long run (that’s the reason why so many of them still exist), it doesn’t stop us from examining the different betting strategy systems that have evolved throughout the years, so readers can find the betting system that best suits them for a short term trip to the local casino.
Betting Strategy System
1）Martingale System
The grandfather of all betting strategies, the Martingale Betting System, is a betting strategy that originated in France in the 18th century. The most straightforward of these methods were created for a game in which the gambler wins the bet if a coin lands on heads and loses if it lands on tails. The gambler was instructed to double their wager after each loss in order for the first win to offset all prior losses and yield a profit equal to the initial bet.
A gambler will likely use the martingale betting technique and has unlimited resources, and the odds are always in their favor. They will eventually win money. However, no gambler has limitless resources, and unlucky gamblers who adopt the martingale betting strategy may go bankrupt or suffer a catastrophic loss due to the exponential growth of their bets.
The gambler’s expected value remains zero, although they typically receive a modest net return, giving the impression that they are using a solid betting strategy. This is because the slim chance that they will sustain a severe loss exactly balances with the expected gain. The house advantage at a casino causes the predicted value to be negative.
Additionally, martingale betting strategy can swiftly put a gambler out of business because the likelihood of a run of consecutive losses is higher than common understanding would indicate.
Roulette has also been played using the martingale approach, Baccarat, and Dragon vs. Tiger, as the probability of either outcome is close to 50%.
Let’s say a player has a 63-unit betting budget. On the initial wager, the player could wager one unit. The wager doubles with every setback. The gamer will always gamble 2k units by using k as the number of prior consecutive losses. The gambler will receive 1 unit in addition to the total amount wagered up to that moment if they win any wager.
The gambler resumes the system with a 1-unit stake after achieving this win. The player sheds 63 units in all after suffering losses on each of the first six wagers. The bankroll is depleted; as a result, making the martingale ineffective.
Contrary to what many people instinctively think, the chances of a run of six consecutive defeats are far higher. According to psychological studies, people mistakenly believe that the probability of losing a long string of games is very low because they know that the possibility of losing six consecutive plays out of six is small.
The likelihood of losing six consecutive times (i.e., experiencing a streak of six losses) at some point over a string of 200 hands of play is roughly 96.5 percent, even if the risk of doing so in six plays is a very low 1.56 percent. A run of 10 consecutive losses has a 17% probability of happening during the course of 200 hands of the game, even if the player is willing to wager 1,000 times their initial wager. When utilizing the martingale approach, ten losses in a row result in a loss of 1,023, which would likely wipe out the bettor.
As the table above shows, although the individual probabilities look small and improbable, the chances of these losing streaks occurring over 200 hands of play are very significant indeed.
The main problem with the Martingale System is that once you decide to go with the system, you are committed to losing all these units just for the gain of 1 unit.
Imagine betting ₹100 a unit and having enough bankroll for ten losses in a row; you would be risking 10 lakh every time you play in return for winning ₹100. Although you will probably win for a while without encountering a 10 lakh loss, how many of us can realistically endure the pain of a 10 lakh loss. There’s no stopping in the middle either; once you place your first bet, you are committed to either winning back everything or going bankrupt trying.
2）1,3,2,6 system or 1,3,2,4 system
The 1-3-2-6 approach is an effective betting strategy for wagers with odds that are about 50/50, especially in Baccarat, Roulette, and Dragon Vs. Tiger. Casino games don’t actually offer 50/50 odds (the Zero in Roulette, for instance, means that even Red / Black isn’t exactly 50/50), but there are some wagers that come close, and this is where the 1-3-2-6 might be helpful.
The sequence of winning bets in the 1-3-2-6 betting system is as follows:
1, 3, 2, 6.
- If a wager succeeds, you move on to the following bet in the lineup.
- You start over if your wager loses.
- If you finish the sequence and win all four bets, you return to the beginning with a profit of 12 units.
- Four wins in a row
The only risk with this betting strategy is losing the first or second wager. This betting strategy performs best in games where four straight wins occur regularly. At the absolute least, you’ll make a profit if you win the first two bets.
When all four bets win (1 in 16 chance), you win large with the 1-3-2-6 and make a profit of 12 bet units.
But the nice thing about the 1-3-2-6 is that even if the third bet loses, You are guaranteed to at least break even if you win the first two wagers (1 in 4).
- If you lose your initial wager, you lose one unit.
- If the second loses, you will lose two units (4 bets, 2 wins).
- You will be four units ahead after bet 2, and therefore if the third wager is unsuccessful, you will earn a profit of two units.
- If the third and fourth picks win, your overall profit is 12 units.
- However, even if the fourth wager fails, you still make a profit.
- If the third and fourth picks win, your overall profit is 12 units.
- However, even if the fourth wager fails, you still make a profit.
You can see how your profit grows as you proceed through the series of bets in the table below. Because we're talking about betting units here, your bet sequence would be 100, 300, 200, and 600 if you were betting 100 units; 250 units would be 250, 750, 500, and 1500.
A variation of the 1-3-2-6 system is the 1-3-2-4 system.
- The 1-3-2-4 method/strategy is based on the well-known 1-3-2-6 system. Still, it is aimed to lower the win/loss volatility by only placing a bet of 4 units on the fourth wager, maintaining a win overall even if the final wager is unsuccessful.
- You could make a profit of six units by winning the first three bets in the 1-3-2-6 (1, 3, and 2) and then risk it all on the sixth bet.
- The idea behind the 1-3-2-4 was to secure an overall profit if the first two bets win by retaining two units from the six already won.
The payoff table for the 1-3-2-4 system is shown below:
The good thing about these 2 systems is that you don't risk a significant loss and can walk away anytime you feel unlucky, unlike the Martingale System, where you are committed to risking your whole bankroll every time you make the first bet.
3) The progressive bankroll system
There’s a story of a gambler in Singapore who managed to turn his $400 (roughly equivalent to ₹22800) capital into $12,000,000 (₹68.3 crore equivalent) gambling in Resorts World Casino. We at Hobigames managed to find out more about this story and got the latest scoop on how he managed to do it.
The gambler, let’s call him Paul (not his real name), has a unique strategy of dividing his bankroll (whatever he had brought to the casino) into 4 units and betting 1 unit whenever he wants to make a bet.
In this instance, he brought $400 into the casino using his usual betting strategy. He bet $100 on the Baccarat table. He won. Now with $500 on him, one unit will be $125 instead of $100.
Do note that if he had lost his initial bet of $100, he would have had to bet $75 (300/4=75) the next hand because he only had a $300 bankroll left. He had no idea that this was the beginning of a string of luck at the casino that would change his life.
Paul’s $400 quickly became $33,000, using his little strategy of increasing his bets by 25% whenever he won and decreasing them by 25% whenever he lost, mainly due to him hitting a hot streak and progressively increasing his bets during that streak. The casino even gave him a free hotel room to rest in when he ended his day with $33,000.
Paul started the 2nd day with a starting bet size of $8250 (33000/4=8250), adhering to his betting strategy of betting 1/4 of whatever he had. Paul started the day strongly with his first 5 bets winning.
After dividing by 4, bet sizes are rounded down, and the banker is subject to a 5% tax.
Paul's bankroll increased to $97600 in just 5 hands, and he showed no indications of stopping. A typical person might already be content with the victory, therefore staking $24400 on the ensuing hand is not recommended. Paul, however, was following his plan, and with a system, there is no room for emotion.
Because you either hit your target or you don't, Paul reasoned that it was far away. He planned to earn at least $1 million, so even if he lost it all today, he would only have lost $400 and a small period of time.
You either bet 1/4 of your bankroll or pass and wait for a better opportunity with this approach, so there are no more scenarios when you can say, "Oh, I think banker next hand, but it's a low confidence bet, so I bet smaller." There are no what-ifs, no second thoughts, and no regrets.
He was able to complete day 2 with $280,000 by winning more bets than he lost and with lady luck still being on his side. He received a 0.8% rolling rebate after being accepted to the VIP area, which further helped him build up his bankroll. The casino upgraded him to a VIP room where he could sleep that night in the anticipation that Paul would lose his luck and return the casino's profits.
His third day got off to a poor start when he lost $70,000 on the day's first wager. But in the following two hands, he got it back.
After three hours of play, he hit a winning streak during which he increased his bankroll to $1.55 million. By that time, the $300,000 table limit had already been reached, so Paul requested an increase to $500,000. The casino manager called his bosses to inform them of Paul's request for higher limits because he had never seen anything like it.
Paul has not yet attained the level of extremely high rollers and VIPs, the casino retorted, adding that $500,000 restrictions are only for those players. When Paul's bankroll reached $2.4 million, there was nothing that could stop him from wagering the maximum table limit.
He placed $3.2 million into his casino cage account before the end of the day, bringing his total to that amount. Due to him reaching the top rolling tier, the 0.8% rolling rebate was boosted to 1.1% and then 1.3%. This rolling rebate also helped him in padding his bankroll.
By day 4, he had increased his bankroll to a maximum of 12 million, of which 9.9 million represented profits and 2.1 million represented a fee from a 1.3% VIP rolling refund.
The Crash
On day 5, his luck ran out, and he had his first losing day, finishing the day with a loss of $4,000,000. Paul swiftly paid off his $1 million mortgage and offered $500,000 to his lover after sensing a change in fortune. But Paul continued to gamble after that. By the end of the month, he had only $400,000 left when Lady Luck turned her back on him.
Paul's streak had come to an end, but what remained was a fascinating tale of a player who took advantage of his run and put the casino managers on edge. Paul continues to frequent casinos now, bringing $1,000 or $2,000 with him each time he attempts to repeat his remarkable run from $400 to $12 million.
Lessons to learn from Paul's adventure
A) Do not be afraid to win when you are on a streak
Most gamblers/punters never experience a significant win for one simple reason. When they lose or are unlucky, they will keep placing larger bets in an effort to make up the loss. When they are winning or lucky, they will continue to place lesser bets in order to protect their profits.
It's in our nature to want to make up for losses in order to stop feeling bad, and we also try to hold onto our victories in order to keep that winning sensation alive. The precise reverse, nevertheless, causes you to win big and lose little. betting more while you're winning and less or not at all when you're up against a chilly deck.
B) Always have a target when you win and a stop loss when you lose
Paul did not know when to stop, therefore his quest did not have a happy ending. He was able to increase his gains during a sustained period of luck, but he lacked the self-control to stop even when his winnings exceeded 68 crores.
To be fair to Paul, you probably would not have had a chance to reach 68 crores if you had set an aim of 1 crore. However, all good things must come to an end, so if you have already met your winning target, walk away and try again with a smaller bankroll later.
C) Systems are useful for keeping our emotions out of the way
Humans are highly emotional beings who frequently allow their feelings to rule their actions. How many times can you recall wagering all you still have in a futile attempt to get it back?
How often do you wish you had placed a larger wager when you knew your luck was unstoppable that day? When you use a method, you remove your emotions from the situation and rely on luck instead. You won't experience the issue of winning less than you ought to and losing more than ought to.
D) Bankroll Management
Paul could afford to lose the $400, so he transformed it into $12 million. How much is Paul worth so that he can afford to gamble $400? Never put more than 2% of your bankroll at danger on any one trade, according to popular investing wisdom. Never wager more than 1% to 2% of your net worth in a single gambling session, in my opinion.
Can you picture placing a wager with all of your life savings on the line? With every wager you place, you'll be under such intense pressure that you'll start to shake. That much pressure makes winning difficult. Always play it safe and only take risks you can afford to lose.
E) Targets can be moving
Assume you have a session bankroll of $1,000 and a $100,000 goal. While you are still feeling invincible after reaching 100,000, you wouldn't want to stop. You can decide to place your stop order as soon as you suffer your first loss in order to allow yourself the chance to hit 10 lakh or perhaps 1 crore. Eg.
You start with ₹10000 and hit ₹100,000 through a good run. When you reach the $100,000 mark, you should try to let it ride, but keep in mind that you should stand up and leave if you have a losing hand. So even if you lose the following hand and incur a loss of $25,000, you will still come out ahead with $75,000, or a respectable $65,000 profit. You can start another session with a reduced bankroll after you walk away, but the important thing is to be able to walk away.
Final words of advice
No betting strategy can, in a game with a negative expectation, change the long-term expected outcomes mathematically. The chances of achieving a huge win or outcome are significantly higher if we can maximize our chances when we do hit a lucky streak and accept a precise aim when we do, as opposed to our natural human tendency to be emotional and unreasonable.
Learn the betting strategy for:
Rummy
Andar Bahar
Car Roulette
Comments
Post a Comment